Four trade scenarios for Antetokounmpo
GERY WOELFEL
Giannis Antetokounmpo could have instantly shut down the rumor mill.
He opted not to do it.
“I’m not gonna do this,’’ Antetokounmpo said after the Milwaukee Bucks’ season-ending defeat to the Indiana Packers in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
“Whatever I say I know how it’s going to translate. I don’t know, man.’’
Antetokounmpo was responding to a reporter’s question as to whether he thought he could win another championship while continuing to play for the Bucks.
Antetokounmpo’s refusal to address his future in Milwaukee just extended the scuttlebutt about his potential departure this summer.
It’s a white-hot topic that could easily extend into late June when the NBA conducts its annual draft. It could go longer.
The fact of the matter is NBA team officials have been quietly discussing Antetokounmpo’s status for most of the season.
With star teammate Damian Lillard likely to miss most, if not all of next season, with the Bucks not having a first-round draft pick in the June draft, without having any significant money to spend on an impactful free agent, the forecast for the Bucks next season is overcast.
“They’re in a very bad situation,’’ said an Eastern Conference team official who is quite familiar with the Bucks situation.
“To be honest with you, I don’t know what they’re going to do.’’
Ditto for Antetokounmpo. By all accounts, he’s content in Milwaukee but he’s also obsessed with winning another title, one that could enhance his basketball legacy.
If Antetokounmpo forces the Bucks and requests/demands a trade, what could the Bucks receive in compensation?
On the surface, one would expect a ton. After all, he is a two-time MVP, has a championship ring and is only 30 with seemingly plenty of gas still in his tank.
But if you dig deeper, the Bucks might not get the compensation haul they covet. The Bucks have to receive players whose salaries would virtually equal Antetokounmpo’s salary of $57.60 million for next season, and are some teams with a stable of good, promising young players who are already tending upward like Oklahoma City, Houston and Orlando willing to tamper with their rosters?
And do the Bucks, if they decide to jettison Antetokounmpo, want to trade him to a team in the Eastern Conference and face him on a regular basis for years to come? Probably not, meaning 14 teams would likely be eliminated from trade considerations.
I have compiled a list of four teams that have the wherewithal to make the Bucks a legitimate offer for their franchise player..
One of them is not the Brooklyn Nets, who the oddsmaker in Vegas have deemed as the favorites for Antetokounmpo’s services.
The Nets possess a passel of future first-round picks, including four in the June draft: the 8th, 19th, 26th and 27th selections. Only the eighth pick would have true value.
Also, while the Nets have a few intriguing youngsters, most notably Cam Thomas, none has the huge upside to develop into an All-Star caliber player.
Here are those four teams and the player packages they could present to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo. Additionally, each of these team would give up multiple draft picks and pick swaps:
HOUSTON ROCKETS
- Jalen Green ……… $33.33M
- Jabari Smith Jr. …. $9.77M
- Reed Sheppard ….. $10.60M
- Cam Whitmore …… $3.37M
- TOTAL: $57.07M
- OBSERVATIONS: By adding Antetokounmpo, the Rockets would instantly be the team to beat in the West next season. And the Rockets would still retain four of their current starters: Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun, Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson. The Bucks would obtain four young players who all have fascinating upsides, especially Green who, at just 21, averaged 21 points and 4.6 rebounds during the regular season.
Smith Jr. and Sheppard also have big-time potential. Both were lottery picks – Smith was the third pick in the 2022 draft and Sheppard was the third pick in last year’s draft.
The Bucks would also receive the Rockets’ first-round pick in the June draft, the 10th overall selection.
The Rockets are giving up a lot in this scenario, but they are also getting a lot in return.
ORLANDO MAGIC
- Franz Wagner …. $38.66M
- Wendell Carter … $10.85M
- Anthony Black ….. $7.97M
TOTAL: $57.4M
OBSERVATIONS: With Antetokounmpo in the fold, the Magic would have one superstar and another on-the-cusp superstar in Paolo Banchero.
They would be surrounded in the starting lineup by Jalen Suggs, one of the best two-way guards in the league, and veterans Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Goga Bitadze.
The Magic would still retain two other talented young players in Jett Howard, who was a lottery pick in the 2023 draft, and Tristan da Silva, who was a mid-first round pick last summer.
The Bucks would have two foundational pieces in Wagner and Black. Both have extremely high upsides.
Wagner, just 23, drew All-Star consideration this season as he averaged24.2 points and 5.7 rebounds.
Black, a skilled multi-positional player, flashed signs of his huge potential this season. He averaged 9.4 points in 24 minutes a game.
Both Black and Wagner were lottery picks: Black went sixth in the 2023 draft and Wagner went eighth in the 2021 draft.
Interestingly, Jeff Weltman, the Magic’s president of basketball operations, played a significant role in the Bucks drafting Antetokounmpo with the 15th overall selection in the 2013 draft.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
- Isaiah Hartenstein …. $28.50M
- Jalen Williams ……….. $6.58M
- Cason Wallace …………$5.82M
- Isaiah Joe …….………… $12.36M
- Dillon Jones ……………. $2.75M
TOTAL: $56.01M
OBSERVATIONS: The key player in this potential transaction is Williams, who blossomed into a star this season.
Not only did Williams average 21.6 points during the regular season, he grabbed 5.3 rebounds and had 5.1 assists. And he’s a top-tier defender.
Wallace appears to have a promising future as well. Just 21, Wallace played all 82 games as a rookie last season and started 43 games this season while averaging 8.4 points.
Hartenstein is more than a solid starting center and, in fact, averaged a double-double this season with 11.2 points and 10.7 rebounds.
While Williams would be the centerpiece in this trade scenario for the Bucks, the Thunder have a burgeoning collection of draft capital. They have an insane 13 first-round picks in the next seven years.
As for the Thunder, the addition of Antetokounmp would give them the NBA’s most formidable “Big Three’’ with presumptive Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and star-in-the-making Chat Holmgren.
The Thunder were damn good this season and could be flat-out scary for years to come with Antetokounmpo on board.
SAN ANTONIO
- Devin Vassell ……. $27.00M
- Stephon Castle …. $9.56M
- Harrison Barnes … $19.0M
TOTAL: $55.56M
OBSERVATIONS: You might think relinquishing Castle would be hard for the Spurs, and it most certainly would. He is, after all, the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.
But to land a player of Antetokounmpo’s immense talents, you have to give up something really good as well, meaning Castle would have to be included in any possible deal.
While Vassell, 24, might not be an All-Star, he is a certifiable starter, having strung three straight impressive seasons by averaging 18.5, 19.6 and 16.3 points.
What makes the Spurs an enticing trade target for the Bucks is their draft capital. That includes two lottery picks in the June draft – Nos. 2 and 14 — a golden opportunity for the Bucks to lay a rock-solid foundation.
As for the Spurs, can you imagine a frontline that features Antetokounmpo and the insanely talented Victor Wembanyama?
Throw All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox into the mix and the Spurts would unequivocally be in the championship conversation.
OTHER TEAMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
- MAVERICKS – Armed with the No. 1 overall pick in the June draft – which will be the gifted Cooper Flagg – the Mavs could make a tempting offer to the Bucks. Antetokounmpo is also tight with Mavs head coach Jason Kidd and top assistant coach Sean Sweeey, his former coaches in Milwaukee.
- NETS – See above.
- WARRIORS – Jonathan Kuminga has oodles of ability and is 22. Moses Moody is emerging as a quality player. But t the Warriors seemingly don’t have any future high draft picks to sweeten the pot.
- KNICKS – The Knicks have several quality veterans lik OG Anunoby, who’ll be 28 in July, and Mikal Bridges, who’ll be 29 in October. But the Knicks, like the Warriors, are bereft of potential lottery picks.
- JAZZ – The best player the Jazz could present the Bucks is Lauri Markkanen, a very good but not great player.
WISHFUL THINKINERS
- HAWKS – Trae Young can obviously play, and could be part of a package that would also include the Hawks two, first-rounders in this draft: Nos. 13 and 22.
- RAPTORS – Raptors GM Masai Ujiri has had his eyes on Antetokounmp forever. Would a package that included Scottie Barnes, Grady Dick and the ninth pick in next month’s draft be enticing?
- HEAT –Ascending star guard Tyler Herro is a Milwaukee native, but the Heat have just minimal attractive draft picks.
